Breeders' Cup 2016: Friday Race Analysis

Friday features four phenomenal contests highlighted by the Grade 1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff. This year’s field provides the only time 3 Eclipse winners (Beholder, Songbird and Stellar Wind) from the prior year have faced each other.

Aside from the Distaff, Friday is chalk full of great betting opportunities throughout the card. Here’s a look at all 4 of the day’s Breeders’ Cup races.

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Race 6-Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf

#9 Wellabled and #13 Oscar Performance should provide an honest early pace with #1, #2 and #3 in hot pursuit. #6 Big Score won the local prep for the in rousing fashion, launching from off the pace and won going away. Look for a similar performance with the quick projected pace. #11 Good Samaritan is the likely race favorite and has a similar running style to the top pick. He should be a little farther back, so look for Big Score to get the jump on him. Also, the outside post draw for Good Samaritan will be a little more difficult to overcome. #8 Intelligence Cross, getting Lasix for the 1^st time, makes his first start in the States for powerhouse trainer Aiden O’Brien. Though he hasn’t raced past 6 furlongs, Intelligence Cross looks like the added distance will be welcomed.

Selections 6-11-8

Race 7-Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

It’s odd to think that a horse could be dropping in class coming into a Breeders’ Cup race, but that’s exactly the case with #3 Dortmund. After chasing California Chrome and Beholder all summer, Dortmund finds class relief in the richest race he’s been in this year. Without much early speed signed on, look for Dortmund to lay off the pace set by #7 Runhappy, take over on the final turn and win for fun, similar to the way Liam’s Map did in the race last year. #8 Tamarkuz has returned with 2 solid efforts following a summer freshening. Though the 6-year-old son of Speighstown has never run around 2 turns, he’s won 4 of his 8 starts at the distance and 3 of his 4 fastest US efforts have been at 8 furlongs. #4 Point Piper is another with a nice record at today’s distance (9-4-1-2) and will be flying late with the cutback in distance.

Selections 3-8-4

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Race 8-Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

With a full field of 14 and a short run to the first turn, post position is critical. Look for #3 New Money Honey to turn the tables on #14 La Coronel, with a much more favorable post draw. In her debut, New Money Honey was a rallying runner up to La Coronel, who was making her third start and grass debut. Following that September 5 match-up, both fillies went their separate ways and captured stakes races in their next starts. La Coronel is a must use in all bets, but much overcome the hurdle of the wide post. #2 Lull was a distant second to La Coronel last out, but looks able to control to the pace from the onset. Expect her to be a live longshot with a favorable pace scenario and post draw.

Selections 3-14-2

Race 9-Breeders’ Cup Distaff

Arguably the greatest Distaff field assembled, look for #8 Beholder to turn the tables on #5 Stellar Wind and hand #1 Songbird her first defeat. In her last 2 starts, the 2-time Breeders’ Cup champ was drawn inside with Stellar Wind applying pressure from the outside and coming out on the short end to her younger rival by the narrowest of margins in both. With Beholder drawn outside watch for her to set a nice stalking trip behind Songbird and #7 I’m a Chatterbox. Stellar Wind is looking for her 3^rd straight decision against Beholder, but looks to sit further off the pace this time as the early fractions look to be quicker for this. In her first try against elders, Songbird is going for a dozen wins in a row for her hall of fame-trainer, Jerry Hollendorfer. Breaking from the rail, Songbird will have to go for the lead early, but should have company up front ensuring a brisk early pace. While it would be no surprise if either 3 Eclipse winners won, I expect Beholder to close out her career with another championship.

Selections 8-5-1