3 Pegasus World Cup 2018 longshots you can't ignore
While most believe Gun Runner is close to a sure thing to take home the top prize in his final race, Saturday's Pegasus World Cup at Gulftream Park, the majority of those that have doubts about the 4-5 morning line favorite will land on either West Coast, Sharp Azteca or Collected.
Though it looks like the race will be won by one of those four talented runners, there are others that offer value and a legitimate chance to light up the tote board.
With a scorching early pace projected, look for contenders from off the pace to fill in the bottom parts of the trifecta and superfecta. Historically, being drawn outside the No. 7 post going a route of ground at Gulfstream Park has been the proverbial kiss of death when it comes to winning, so focus on entrants drawn toward the inside when choosing your longshots.
1. Stellar Wind
While she appeared to go off form working toward the Breeders’ Cup Distaff last November, and brought up the rear while racing against a track bias that day, she has been training forwardly for her career bow with new trainer Chad Brown.
Although her record at 9 furlongs isn’t stellar (4-0-1-0), her best career effort came when 2nd in the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Distaff rallying late.
Whereas the short fields in California prompted her to show more early speed, I believe rallying from off the pace is really her optimal running style. With a hot early pace, expect her to lay mid-pack, save ground along the inside and get an early jump on the deep closers.
2. Gunnevera
A deep closer that likes the Hallandale strip (7-3-2-1), but he has become the "wise guy" horse this week.
While I believe he could land in the superfecta, Gunnevera has never put up better than a 97 Beyer Speed Figure going two turns at Gulfstream.
Though the newly turned 4-year-old son of Dialed In appears to be getting better in his last two starts (109 & 104 Beyers), it appears he will be left with too much to do in the late stages of this talented field.
Another stone-cold closer getting good at the right time, though very poorly drawn. Look for him near the back of the pack, and getting over to the rail to save ground as the field enters the first turn.
Even though this represents a jump in class, 9 furlongs is his favorite distance, never missing the board in five starts.
Trainer Dallas Stewart has a penchant for hitting the board in the big races with big prices. This is also the same owner/trainer/jockey combo that won the Breeders’ Cup Distaff in 2017.
How to bet
Gun Runner, Collected or West Coast should take the top spot in the Pegasus, but Stellar Wind looks to sit a solid trip, and I’m excited about her chances to get in the superfecta at odds of at least 20-1. I’ll look to wheel her in the second, third and fourth positions with the big three in the top spot and everyone but Singing Bullet and Great Expectations to fill out the other two positions. If the expected pace meltdown ensues, look for the other closers to fill more slots of the superfecta.
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