My 2015 Breeders’ Cup Handicapping Experience
I know there are a million Breeders’ Cup stories, but I felt compelled to tell mine. Not that my story is more interesting than any other personal story, but it does raise an interesting topic for discussion. Handicapping -- is it really worth the time and effort?
Last week I spent about thirteen hours handicapping the thirteen Breeders’ Cup races at Keeneland. I used Super Screener, and TimeformUS as part of my handicapping tools. I tried to narrow my picks down to four horses in each race, where possible. In the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint and the Breeders’Cup Turf Mile I went six deep with my picks. I found these two races to be the most difficult to narrow my selections down.
Out of these thirteen races, I had nine of the winners listed in my picks. Which doesn’t sound too bad, in my opinion. Due to budget constraints, the trouble started when I finalized my picks for the rolling pick 3's and the pick 4's. Needless to say, I didn’t choose the correct combinations to collect on any of these wagers. I did hit an exacta box, and a trifecta based on my handicapping picks.
Here is the where the story takes a funny turn. On Saturday, I went up to the betting window to make my pick 3 and pick 4 wagers for the whole day. I went through all of the races based on my wager amounts. When I finished my last pick 3 wager, it was on race 5, the Breeders’ Cup Fillies and Mares Sprint. My wager total came out to thirty nine dollars, and I had two twenty dollar bills in my hand. I told the teller that it was too bad that it wasn’t an even forty dollars, and she replied how about doing a quick pick to make it an even forty. I agreed to her suggestion, and she punched the quick pick ticket. When I got back to my table I added my quick pick ticket to the back of my handicapping sheet. The numbers on that ticket were race 5 number 7, race 6 number 11, and race 7 number 5.
I spent the next few hours enjoying the races, and making additional wagers on those races. I basically had forgot about my extra quick pick ticket. When I flipped my handicapping sheet over to check on my pick 6 picks I remembered the extra pick three ticket. I looked at the numbers, and I knew that Runhappy, number 5, had just won race 7. So I started thinking about what horses had won the previous two races, and I thought the eleven had possibly won the race before. So I went up to the betting window, and had the teller print off the results for those three races. Then I discovered that the quick pick, pick 3 ticket was indeed a winner. The ticket paid me $586.00, and I was shocked.
Summary of my wagering day is as follows: handicapping winnings $74.00, and blind luck winnings $586.00. These results make me question the fact of whether or not the thirteen hours I spent handicapping was worth the effort. My wife never handicaps the races, and she just punches numbers on the tote machine. She doesn’t win often but when she does the payouts are usually high dollars. I know overall handicapping is a good tool, but luck still plays a huge part in betting.
May the finish line always be your friend.
Big Daddy B