Pick Six Double Carryover!!!
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With that said, I’m going to tackle the sequence (races 5-10) by putting together three different types of tickets; an all-encompassing, big-budget ticket (let’s call this one “The Bill Gates ticket.“), a more modest ticket (“The post-divorce Arnold Schwarzenegger ticket.”), and a bargain basement ticket (“The Joe DePaolo ticket.”) .
In assembling my tickets, I’ll utilize the ABC Matrix - the brainchild of Daily Racing Form publisher Steve Crist. His philosophy, in brief, is to emphasize your strongest opinions by making them key horses in each race. You do so by designating those key horses as “A’s.“ Horses you think have somewhat of a chance, but are not your top selections are made “B’s.“ And horses you don’t like much if at all, but could win if everything fell into place are “C’s.“ In order for this ticket to win, you’ll need either 6 A’s, 5 A’s and 1 B, 5 A’s and 1 C, or 4 A’s and 2 B’s to win the six races.
The Bill Gates ticket will use the full matrix, the post-divorce Arnold Schwazenegger ticket will simplify it to just A’s and B’s, and the Joe DePaolo ticket will simplify it further, using only the A selections. Crist refers to this type of play as a “caveman ticket.”
If only it were that easy.
Race 5
As if these races weren’t difficult enough to handicap, the weather stands to be a significant factor. Weather.com is predicting a 50% chance of rain this afternoon, on top of the significant amount of water that the main track and turf courses have taken already. With four of the six races in the sequence carded for the grass, an endless number of permutations are added to the puzzle. We will handicap for both turf and dirt, although the former might end up being wholly unnecessary, based on the forecast.
If one race stays on the turf, however, it will probably be this one - The Waya Signature Stallion Stakes. Fillies and Mares three years old and up, going one mile and a half on the inner turf course.
Provided the race stays on the turf, it will feature one of my stonger opinions on the day, in the form of #7, Tarrip. Second choice on the morning line at 3-1, this Christophe Clement trainee would seem to appreciate the class drop, as, for the first time in five starts, she won’t be running in graded stakes company. She possesses some good early speed, in a race which figures to have a dawdling pace. And unlike some of the other contenders in here, she doesn’t appear to have trouble negotiating the distance.
That said, Tarrip hasn’t finished in the top two in any of her last eight starts. She also has never run over yielding turf before.
But we need to take a stand somewhere. So we’re singling Tarrip on the Joe DePaolo ticket.
#2 Snow Top Mountain, the morning line favorite for the race, finished fourth last out in an ungraded race at Indiana Downs. She’s kept some pretty classy company over the past year, and she has run well with some give in the ground before. But she’s never been beyond one mile and an eighth. Still, her form makes her a must-use as a primary backup. We’ll slot her on the B line with #4 Emerald Beech (who comes in off a career-best effort), and #6 Freedom Rings (who seems to prefer longer distances).
#5 Gold D’Oro is a likely candidate to set the pace. Though I don’t love her going this far, she has to be used as a C. #8 Dyani, #9 Celtic Cross, and #10 Senada all figure to have at least a puncher’s chance, so we’ll use them as well.
If the race comes off the turf, it becomes a true puzzle. There will, likely, be many scratches, as there is very little dirt form in the main body of this field.
Predictably, a main track only entrant leads our short list of A’s. #11 She Be Classy has, by far, the best main track record in this group. However, she has never run on a wet track before. So she can’t, in good conscience, be singled.
We’ll also use Celtic Cross as an A if the race comes off the turf. She has hit the board in both of her starts on a wet main track. And we’ll tap Snow Top Mountain, Gold D’Oro, Freedom Rings, and Tarrip as B’s, and the rest as C’s. This race, if run in the slop, is just too unpredictable to toss anyone.
The Joe DePaolo Ticket: 7 (9,11 if off turf)
The Arnold Schwarzenegger ticket: Add 2,4,6 as backups (2,5,6,7 if off turf)
The Bill Gates Ticket: Add 5,8,9,10 as secondary backups (All if off turf)
Race 6
This race is, mercifully, one of the two races on the program that you don’t have to handicap twice, as it has already been carded for the dirt. It’s a $20,000 claimer for fillies and mares three and up at six furlongs.
Once is brutal enough, however. The race features a field of nine, and, with the exception of #7 Thunderin Your Ear, there are no obvious tosses.
We’re going four deep on the A line in here, starting with #3 Need An Angel. She ships up from Churchill coming off of a win at this level. She figures to sit just off the speed under jockey Kent Desormeaux. She is a wet track question mark, but still a must-use.
I’m going to try to get clever with #4 Seeing Clearly. This one owns two wet track wins in six starts, and is cutting back in distance for this. Maybe the turn back, and her affinity for an off track, help her in this spot at a price.
#6 My Honey Laurie also cuts back in distance. Though her two wet track efforts haven’t been anything to write home about, she does get some class relief.
I toyed with the idea of not using #9 Fortheloveof Anna as an A, but ultimately chickened out. Her last two starts in open company were nothing to write home about. But one of them was a route race and the other was her first start off a layoff. This is her first start for new trainer Rudy Rodriguez - an angle that he has been successful with 34% of the time in 2011. Throw in her two solid wet track efforts, as well as the fact that she’ll likely get a dream trip in the second flight, and she needs to be on the main ticket.
I am, however, relegating morning line favorite #8 Neat Lightning to B status. Yes, she takes a steep class plunge, off of an up the track effort at Parx in early June. But she might knock heads with some of the other speed in here. And while speed has been deadly so far this meet, this one feels to me like a money burner. She’s failed to hit the board in any of her last three starts, while being sent off at a price of 5-1 or less in each.
With Neat Lighting representing my lone B selection, I’ll include only #2 Carmela C as a secondary backup. Since she’s probably the speed of the speed in here, it is very hard to leave this one off your ticket completely. Her three career sloppy track starts to date, however, have been beyond dreadful. Then again, her fast track efforts weren’t much better at the time, and it’s possible she could just be a new horse. I’m guessing trainer Dominic Galluscio will do us a favor and scratch her if the course condition truly isn’t to her liking.
The Joe DePaolo Ticket: 3,4,6,9
The Arnold Schwarzenegger Ticket: Add 8
The Bill Gates Ticket: Add 2
Race 7
The second of the sequence’s four turf races (weather permitting), this one’s a very intriguing affair in which there’s some significant price potential. It’s a $25,000 non-winners of two lifetime claimer, going a mile on the inner turf course.
I’m going to take a flyer on #2 Adam Rides Again and make him an A. His two starts this year have been dreadful. He was pulled up in a steeplechase race back in May, then followed that up with a woeful sixth place finish in a state-bred allowance race back on the flat, beaten 19 lengths. His 2010 form, however, would make him a very serious player in here, and a decent workout last Monday suggests he might be rounding into that form. Dynamics-wise, it would seem that the lead is his, if he wants it. There’s very little speed in here. He just might take them all the way around.
It remains to be seen if #3 The Man Uptown wants to go a mile. Or even if turf is his
preferred surface. But he takes a class plunge in here for red hot trainer Chad Brown, and that simply cannot be ignored.
Though I’d be sorely disappointed if #5 Cosmic King prevailed here, his recent form is too good to ignore. Arguably, his two best career races came on wet turf courses. He’s a major player here. But he faces the same question that the other closers face in here: Will he get a pace to run at?
Curious to see if jockey Julien Leparoux tries to hustle #9 Storm Galileo to the front, as that would seem to be this one’s best shot. The cutback to a mile might help his cause.
We’ll limit the A selections to those four.
#6 Ahgogo leads our B selections. Toss his last and he fits right in with this bunch. And it’s encouraging to see #10 Virging On Stardom take a step up in class for Rudy Rodriguez. It’s also encouraging to see Ramon Dominguez in the irons, taking over for Alan Garcia.
Trainer Tom Voss has scored at Saratoga, in the past, returning steeplechase horses to the flats. He sends out #1 Mischief here, and he merits inclusion as a C. Blinkers on for #4 Patent Pending Tom, so maybe he shows some speed. His race three back makes him a serious player here. Morning line favorite #8 Pervis is a horse I want absolutely no part of. He seems like a horse that doesn’t want to win. Still, the Gates ticket is way too expensive to leave him off completely.
Should this race get switched to the main track, we will limit our play to The Man Uptown, and the two MTO’s, #13 Settle For Medal, and #14 Launch N Relaunch. The dirt form of those three towers over the field. No backups needed.
The Joe DePaolo Ticket: 2,3,5,9 (3,13,14 if off turf)
The Arnold Schwarzenegger Ticket: Add 6,10
The Bill Gates Ticket: Add 1,4,8
Race 8
The Joe DePaolo ticket is getting kind of expensive. We went four deep in each of the last two legs. We’ve got to take another stand here.
And we picked a heck of a leg to do it.
Though only six are entered, this one’s wide open. It’s a very contentious, $100,000 claimer for three year olds going seven furlongs on the main track.
Whilst holding my breath, and hoping for the best, I will single #3 Dawly on the primary ticket.
Dawly makes his first start since being claimed by Rudy Rodriguez. He appears to be getting better with each start. Rodriguez is obviously encouraged by his recent form, as he’s stepped Dawly up in class here. He figures to sit a nice trip just off of the pace, and kick on when the time is right. His two sloppy track efforts have been nothing to sneeze at. He notched a victory in one, and a respectable third in the other, beaten less than three lengths by Arthur’s Tale - who would go on to finish second in the Wood Memorial in his next start.
It’s a tough single, for sure. But we’ve got to narrow this play somehow.
#2 Goodtimehadbyall and #4 Sam Sparkle both merit inclusion as B’s. Each poses a major threat to Dawly. Goodtimehadbyall’s two starts outside of stakes company in his current form cycle have both been wins. He might have a little too much to do in the lane, though. Sam Sparkle, in his last try at this distance, put in a very good run against the impressive Bold Warrior. He also owns the field’s best Beyer Speed Figure. His one sloppy track star, however, was arguably his worst main track performance.
Debated whether or not to use #1 Derivative, but ultimately decided to leave him off. This sequence is getting pricey even for Mr. Gates.
The Joe DePaolo Ticket: 3
The Arnold Schwarzenegger Ticket: Add 2,4
The Bill Gates Ticket: No other additions
Race 9
Very interesting $50,000 allowance/optional claimer for three year olds and up going one mile and three sixteenths.
Those looking for some clues as to how some of the three year old turf stars like Banned and Wilcox Inn might fare against older later in the season might want to pay attention to the performance of #2 Close Ally. He has put in some respectable performances against those two this season. In this spot, he’ll tackle older for the first time. I’m willing to wager that he’s up to the task.
#3 En Fuego will cut back in distance for this spot. He comes in off a three month layoff, but might well fire off the bench. His last start, over the polytrack at Keeneland, was a solid third to Center Divider, who posted a runner-up finish in a very salty edition of the John’s Call stakes last week. The cutback to nine and a half panels might agree with him. And there should be some speed for him to close into.
I really like the consistency shown by #7 Ducduc. This one gives a great effort every time. He’s 3-for-5 in 2011, with the two defeats being very narrow ones. Encouraging to note the presence of jockey Willie Martinez, Ducduc’s regular rider, who comes in just to take this mount.
I could make cases for seven or eight of these, but will limit the A’s to those three.
Colonialism, the 3-1 morning line choice for trainer Bill Mott, possesses some tactical speed. But I ultimately wonder if he wants to go this far. I’ll use him as a B along with #9 El Crespo. It’s hard to have that much confidence in a horse who is winless in his last 11 starts. But El Crespo has given a good account of himself in some tough company. He rates a shot here.
For our C’s, we’ll look to two dirt horses who picked a heck of a spot to try the lawn for the first time. #1 Mine Train’s synthetic start three back seems to suggest he might like the lawn. Also, his entry mate Slambino is a threat if he draws in. #4 Regal Warrior’s dirt form is such that all he needs to do is replicate it in order to contend and, quite possibly, win.
Should this race be rained onto the main track, #13 Slevin seems pretty imposing. He comes in fresh off of a win at Belmont at this level. He, Regal Warrior, and the entry will be the A plays, with and #6 Distant Sky skipping the Schwarzenegger ticket to go directly to the Gates ticket as a C.
The Joe DePaolo Ticket: 2,3,7 (1,4,13 if off turf)
The Arnold Schwarzenegger Ticket: 5,9
The Bill Gates Ticket: 1,4 (6 if off turf)
Race 10
If we, by some miracle, are still alive at this point, we’re going to have very little coverage. My aim, when starting this column (seemingly days ago. My deepest thanks if you’re still hanging in there with me) was to keep the DePaolo ticket under $100, and the Schwarzenegger ticket under $1,000. That means we’re going to have to come up with one last A to single.
And we’ve got a group of less than stellar state-bred maidens to choose from, let me tell you. There’s no John Henry in this bunch.
Nonetheless, we’ve got to pick one for this mile long inner turf heat. So let’s go with #3 Hershel. This one tried to steal it on the front end last out, and came very close to doing it, falling just a neck short. In his first turf start, he ran into the very tough Street Game, who crushed him by 16½ lengths. Street Game, though, went on to run up the score by a similar margin against graded foes in his next start. As a bonus, Hershel relished the yielding ground last out, which he’s likely to see again today. The one negative? The fact that he’s likely to have company up front. The ideal trip for him today would be to sit just off the speed.
#1 What‘s The Record, #4 Obviously Tuesday, and #6 Turn Up The Music could all be involved from the opening bell. They’ve all run races justifying their inclusion on the ticket as B’s.
#2 Cincinnati Kid is another sprinter stretching out in here. He’s one of our three C’s along with #7 Writethatdown and #9 Freud’s Debut.
If this race is moved to the main track, we’re going to single #15 Piscesbymoonlight. He just missed last out in an off the turf event at Aqueduct. That race towers over the rest of this group. No backups here. Straight single. We can always hedge, if necessary.
Here’s hoping we face that quandary.
The Joe DePaolo Ticket: 3 (15 if off turf)
The Arnold Schwarzenegger Ticket: 1,4,6
The Bill Gates Ticket: 2,7,9
So there you have it. Here are the totals:
The Joe DePaolo Ticket: $96 ($144 if off turf)
The Arnold Schwarzenegger Ticket: $1,000 ($756 if off turf)
The Bill Gates Ticket: $4,996 ($1,920 if off turf)
If you’re planning on jumping in, I wish you the very best of luck.
Update (2:15 ET) -- Scratches have completely ravaged this ticket, so let's revise:
Race 5: A - 2, 4 (erroneously made her a B earlier),6 C - 8,9,10
Race 6: A - 3,9 B - 4,6
Race 7: As is
Race 8: As is
Race 9: As is
Race 10: Take out the 7
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