40 Days, 40 Questions Revisited: A Midseason Review (Part I)
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Three and a half weeks down, three weeks to go. Having just passed the halfway point of the meet, it seems appropriate to revisit the 40 questions posed in this space a few weeks back, and see if we can unearth some answers. As we did with the preview, we’re splitting this mid-meet review into two parts. Be on the lookout for part two tomorrow,
1. Which of the outstanding crop of 3-year-old fillies will step forward in the Coaching Club American Oaks and the Alabama?
It’s Tricky was outstanding in winning the CCA Oaks on opening weekend. Plum Pretty was game in defeat. Those two will hook up again on Saturday in the Alabama. They’ll be joined by Royal Delta, who will look to move forward off of her mediocre performance in that race. Meanwhile, Joyful Victory and Buster’s Ready will bypass the Alabama off of subpar runs in the CCA Oaks.
2. Can Big Drama make it back in time for the Forego?
To be determined. But he is back on the worktab down at trainer David Fawkes’s Calder home base. Encouraging news.
3. Can any other sprinter take him down?
Sean Avery was magnificent in capturing the Vanderbilt on August 7th. He prevailed by a nose over Trappe Shot, who stamped his eye-popping victory in the True North with another solid effort. Meanwhile, in the ungraded James Marvin on opening day, Jackson Bend’s turn back to seven furlongs proved to be just what the doctor ordered. His course and distance win makes him a huge threat in the Forego.
4. How will the fans react to the added emphasis on steeplechase racing?
At the windows, the answer appears to be that the fans are tolerating the jump races. The four steeplechases races thus far have averaged just under $500,000 in handle, roughly half of the average Saratoga race.
The steeplechase races, however continue to be plagued by breakdowns. Last Thursday’s Mrs. Ogden Phipps stakes was marred by a spill taken by a horse named Beating the Odds. Will the fans continue to support the jumpers if they don’t all make it back to the barn?
5. With the Aqueduct VLT’s nearly operational, how much will NY breds sell for this year?
Lots.
Lots and lots.
Gross revenue was up over 60% from last year. On average, each horse went for just a shade over $50,000 - an increase of approximately 50% from 2010. The slots are coming. And the owners are ready to claim their cut.
6. What will the reaction on the backside be to the Breeders’ Cup’s lasix phase-out?
The intrepid Tim Wilkin of the Albany Times-Union wrote, probably, the definitive piece on this issue so far during the meet. Bill Mott and Todd Pletcher are both skeptical.
7. Can Todd Pletcher defend his Saratoga training title?
With 23 tallies to his name thus far, Pletcher is currently is 9 wins clear of his nearest pursuer. This one seems a fairly safe bet.
Nearly half of those wins have come in juvenile races, with Overdriven and Georgie’s Angel producing the headlining scores in the Sanford and Schuylerville stakes respectively.
8. Fresh of her 1,000th win, can Linda Rice return to her 2009 form, and capture a second Saratoga crown?
It’s been a struggle for Rice thus far. She is currently sporting a 3-for-27 record, putting her in a tie for 13th place in the trainer standings. She will look to turn things around beginning this afternoon, when she sends out Awakino Cat in the ungraded Troy Stakes.
9. Will Mechanicsville, NY native Chad Brown improve on his stellar 2010 meet?
Pletcher may be the leading trainer so far, but Chad Brown has been the story. He’s winning everything in sight. His winning percentage is hovering around 32%. Having notched 14 victories thus far (6 clear of 3rd place conditioners Steve Asmussen and Rudy Rodriguez), Brown is probably the only one with a shot of catching Pletcher at the top of the standings.
And these are not cheap races in which Brown is excelling. He’s 3-for-6 in stakes events, including a Grade I win with Zagora, who took the Diana on July 30th. Brown has even taken his show on the road this summer, as he won the Grade I Beverly D with Stacelita last weekend at Arlington. Ignore Chad Brown at your own risk. Everything he’s touching right now is turning to gold.
10. Which other trainers will make their presence felt in the trainer’s race?
In addition to Rodriguez and Asmussen, Graham Motion, Michael Hushion, Tony Dutrow, and Michael Matz have all had success with limited runners.
The answer to this question, however, is no one. This is a two-man race between Pletcher and Brown, and even that might be stretching it.
11. Can John Velazquez defend his Saratoga riding title?
Johnny V. has been getting the mounts, and he’s been getting them to the winner’s circle. He’s already won an astonishing 36 races, almost two per day. He’s winning at an incredible 23.5% clip. That’s an impressive percentage at any meet. It’s almost unheard of at Saratoga.
Velazquez currently enjoys a seven win advantage in the jockey standings. Both Castellano and Dominguez are within striking distance, but they’ll need to pick it up.
12. Will Ramon Dominguez take the next step and go from dominant day-to-day rider, to big “money” rider?
1-for-23 in stakes.
1-for-23.
The one win came aboard Hessonite in the ungraded New York Stallion Stakes.
The incredibly curious case of Ramon Dominguez continues.
He’s been dominant on this circuit for the past three years. And yet he is easily the most polarizing jockey in all of racing. For all of his success, he has plenty of detractors.
Numbers like 1-for-23 will do little to silence them.
13. Will Javier Castellano break through, after threatening to take home the riding title in 2010?
It is hardly a coincidence that both Castellano and Chad Brown (for whom Javier rides first call) are having terrific second place showings on their respective leader boards (just like it is hardly coincidental that they are looking up at Velazquez and Pletcher).
With 29 wins, Castellano is four clear of Dominguez for second place. Finishing ahead of Ramon Dominguez in the standings at a NYRA meet is something that only three men have accomplished in the last three years (Velazquez and Castellano last year at Saratoga, and Cornelio Velasquez at Aqueduct this spring). It is an accomplishment not to be taken lightly.
But Castellano’s most impressive achievement through 22 days is that he currently holds a $340,000 advantage over Velazquez in terms of purse money won.
In the span of 30 minutes on July 30th, Castellano banked $600,000 for his connections, winning the Diana and Jim Dandy Stakes aboard Zagora and Stay Thirsty.
14. Which other riders will make noise in the jockey standings?
Rajiv Maragh has been impressive so far this meet. He’s ridden 16 winners, good for 4th place. What’s most impressive about that is Maragh hasn’t been getting anywhere near the quality of mounts as the three men he’s chasing. He’s only ridden 12 favorites thus far, compared with a combined 104 for Velazquez, Castellano, and Dominguez.
As expected, Julien Leparoux is leading the Kentucky invaders. His 15 tallies are good for 5th place. Kent Desormeaux’s eight wins from only 29 starts are also worthy of mention.
15. Can any of the older males separate themselves from the pack?
Two of them did on August 6th.
Tizway stamped his terrific Met Mile with an equally impressive performance in the Whitney. Flat Out also backed up his last race, by finishing a competitive second. The rest were a good way back. These two have clearly established themselves atop the pecking order among the New York based older males.
Tizway will sit on his top spot in the rankings until the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont in October, while Flat Out will, most likely, return for the Woodward on September 3rd.
16. With Animal Kingdom injured, which 3-year-old male will step up and seize control of a wide-open division?
Stay Thirsty was magnificent in the Jim Dandy, dominating the field by four lengths. He might have to step his game yet another notch in the Travers, though, if he’s to beat Preakness winner Shackleford, Haskell winner Coil, Belmont winner Ruler On Ice, and others.
17. Can a 3-year-old sprinter make a legitimate case for championship honors?
Caleb’s Posse’s victory at long odds in the August 8th Amsterdam suggests that the answer to this question is: probably not. Chaos has become the order of the day in this division, just as it has for the 3-year-old routers.
Still, The Factor and Uncle Mo are both possible to run in next week’s King’s Bishop. A dazzling performance from one of them might make this a possibility.
18. Will the Downstaters Come Out to Play?
You can officially close the book on the idea that anyone misses New York City OTB -other than its employees. All sources handle has dropped less than one percent from last year. The simulcast facilities that have been set up at Aqueduct and Belmont are both huge hits. NYRA has survived/
NYRA President and CEO Charles Hayward, outgoing COO Hal Handel, and Chairman Stephen Duncker all deserve a tremendous amount of credit for successfully navigating NYRA through a perilous time.
NYC OTB: Good riddance. You were a blight on this city in so many ways.
19. Will my first food stop be at Hattie’s Chicken Shack or Shake Shack?
The winner was Shake Shack. Frankly, with due respect to Hattie's, it wasn’t much of a horse race. Shake Shack is incredible.
20. Can I come up with 20 more relevant questions to make this gimmick work?
I’ll let you judge how this one turned out.
Back here tomorrow for Part II.
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