40 Days, 40 Questions: A Midseason Review (Part II)
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21. Will Saratoga continue to be the “graveyard of favorites?”
Trainer Jimmy Toner - perhaps tongue-in-cheek - partially chalked up the defeat of his fine 3-year-old filly Winter Memories on Sunday to this long-held, widely-believed maxim. The top five jockeys have combined to win with 32.3% of favorites thus far. That’s a little low for this circuit, where favorites tend to win at just under 40% during the rest of the year.
22. Is seven weeks of Saratoga tenable long-term?
Handle numbers, as outlined in part I of this piece, have remained level, suggesting that the answer to this question is yes.
23. Will the weather cooperate?
“After (Sunday’s) epic rainstorm, hoping to be back on the turf by opening day 2013.”
The above comment came, in tweet form, from lead NYRA analyst Andy Serling. So while the answer to this question so far has been a tepid yes, the meet’s biggest week is off to a poor start weather-wise.
24. Will Uncle Mo be in the starting gate for the King’s Bishop?
A series of steady works have been put into Uncle Mo over the course of the past few weeks. In the latest, Mo went 59:4 in company with stakes winner Turbo Compressor. Of the work, trainer Todd Pletcher said: “I thought it was another very good work. I worked quite a few horses in the first set and the track is pretty consistent to the way it’s been playing which is somewhat demanding and not real fast but he seemed to handle it real well. He finished up good and galloped out strongly, so I think we are right on schedule.”
Here’s hoping. With the defection of The Factor, Uncle Mo is needed in the King’s Bishop. Badly.
25. Is Winter Memories the real deal?
The early returns were incredibly positive. The four length victory that Winter Memories posted in the Lake George on July 27th was absolutely stunning. She unleashed an incredibly powerful closing kick that day on a group of overmatched rivals.
The water got a little deeper, however, in the Lake Placid yesterday. The tougher company, coupled with a hellacious journey around the Mellon turf course, proved to be too much for Winter Memories to overcome, as she finished a disappointing fourth to winner Hungry Island.
It seems foolish, though, to give up on this one based on yesterday’s performance. She’ll be back, in a big way.
26. Will this year’s Ruffian be the weakest Grade I race in Saratoga history?
Ask The Moon lit up the tote board in the Ruffian, capturing the race at odds of 18-1. The race marked her first victory in her last ten races. And she won for fun, as second-place finisher Super Espresso needed a telescope to see Ask The Moon at the finish.
No Blind Lucks or Havre De Graces here.
If there’s any doubt about how suspect this field was, we’ll get another chance to see them all in action in this Sunday’s Personal Ensign.
Whoopee.
27. Will this year’s Sword Dancer be the weakest Grade I race in Saratoga history?
This race was definitively stronger than the Ruffian, and it was, at the very least, won by a horse who’d previously captured a Grade I. Winchester prevailed over a game Rahy’s Attorney to get the money in the Sword Dancer. Grade I winner Teaks North also added to the strength of this field.
This race still deserves to be downgraded, but at least this year’s renewal wasn’t embarrassing.
28. Can this year’s edition of the Diana match the excitement of last year’s?
It didn’t, but it did yield a solid winner in Zagora. The field also included graded-stakes winners Aruna and Aviate among others. But there was no blanket finish like the one in which Proviso prevailed a year ago.
Trained by the red-hot Chad Brown, Zagora might not even be the best turf filly in the barn. Stacelita, two weeks after the Diana, captured the Beverly D for Brown. Both appear to be prime contenders for championship honors in the Filly and Mare turf division.
29. Will the relocation of the New York Giants training camp to New Jersey have an impact on Saratoga attendance?
Attendance, like handle, has held steady. The Giants’ departure to Jersey has, perhaps, weakened the dark day entertainment options for fans. But it has not prevented the downstate fans from making the trip.
30. Which juveniles will stamp themselves as early horses to watch on the 2012 triple crown trail?
Overdriven stamped his impressive maiden score with a solid win in the Sanford on opening weekend. But J.C.’s Pride, for trainer Robert Barbara, arguably turned in the best performance by a juvenile so far. He was dazzling in a maiden event, earning a 102 Beyer speed figure for his victory. We’ll see him next in the Hopeful, on closing day.
31. Can Mike Repole repeat as leading owner?
Looks like a two horse race between Repole and Michael Dubb in this category. Dubb currently holds a 9-8 edge over Repole, who does have some bullets to fire in the final two weeks.
32. Will any tears be shed at this year’s Hall of Fame ceremony?
The real upset here was that the ceremony came in on time. A departure from the norm, for sure.
33. Will the pick 6 pool fall short of the $100,000 guarantee on any non-carryover Thursday?
Once again, the pick 6 has carried an astonishing number of times this meeting. Already, four double-carryovers have occurred, with jackpots in the quarter-million dollar range up for grabs each time.
NYRA hasn’t had to supplement the pick 6 pool yet, having met the guarantee every time.
34. Will the late pick 4 pool fall short of the $500,000 guarantee on Saturdays?
A foolish question to have posed, in retrospect. This supplement was never in jeopardy of being needed. This pool has exceeded $800,000 every Saturday. This Saturday, the pool will be guaranteed for $1 million. This number should be reached with 10 minutes to post.
35. Will purse incentives help keep field sizes large?
Unfortunately, it seems like we’re going to get a definitive answer to this question over the next several days.
36. Will the “jackets required” rule for box seat holders be relaxed on opening day?
My understanding is that it was. Good job, NYRA. And it was great to see all the horses come back to the barn on opening day, after having raced in temperatures approaching 100 degrees.
37. Which giveaway will prove most popular with the “spinners?”
This one is to be determined. We’ll have a better idea after the final promotion, on closing weekend.
38. Will NYRA supplement purses to bring any races together?
NYRA resisted the urge to sweeten the pot for any of its races, in the hopes of attracting another Blind Luck-Havre De Grace showdown. As a result, they won’t get one.
39. Blind Luck vs. Havre De Grace: Round 7. Will it happen? And, if so, when?
Though Blind Luck is staying home in California, Havre De Grace will be running on closing weekend in the Woodward, a race in which she’ll be taking on males for the first time. We’ll get a very interesting gauge on where these two horses stand on the overall landscape over the course of the next two weeks.
40. What will be the signature moment of this year’s meet?
Quite simply, there has not been one yet.
We’ll address this in detail later this week. But, in short, this meet has been a disappointment so far.
The good news is, seven Grade I races remain in Saratoga’s back loaded schedule. Hopefully, Travers day will get the ball rolling for a fantastic finish.
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