Thursday's Best Bet: You're To Blame runs free in Birdstone
Thursday’s 9th race from Saratoga is the $120,000 Birdstone Stakes for four-year-olds and up traveling a mile and three-quarters on the main track (Post Time 5:39 p.m. ET).
#6 YOU’RE TO BLAME (4-1) got back on the beam when stalking the pace and running away in his first start for Orlando Noda in a local off the turf route July 25. He landed the place in this event last year and has back class. He won the Greenwood Cup (G3) at Parx in 2018 and finished a close 2nd in the Pimlico Special (G3) in 2019.
#3 Lone Rock (1-1) won six times and missed by a neck in his last seven starts. The tactical type enjoys these long distance races on dirt and must be respected at low odds.
#4 Moretti (5-2) won this event last summer and might be ready to get back to that sharp form in his third start of the year. He projects a stalking trip under his new rider Irad Ortiz Jr.
#1 Ry’s the Guy (8-1) fired in a couple of his long distance dirt attempts. He smartly went all the way in a mile and a half stakes at Churchill last September, and stalked, led, and occupied the runner-up spot behind Lone Rock in another stakes marathon under the Twin Spires April 27. He was nowhere in a pair of graded dirt marathons last fall and June 5 of this year, and he is capable of bouncing back at square odds. He reconnects with his winning rider Chris Landeros and he might be able to get out there and dictate terms.
#5 Shooger Ray Too (15-1) fired trifecta shots in his last eight dirt starts at shorter distances. He was up for the show in the Stud Muffin Stakes at eleven furlongs March 27 and might be able to rally for a share.
#7 Rocketry (12-1) likes to sit way back and make a late run. He grabbed show dough in the 2020 edition of this race and won the Turnback the Alarm (G2) last fall.
#2 He’s No Lemon (20-1) was claimed out of his last start by Ken McPeek. The late running turf marathon specialist tries dirt for the first time.
Wagers:
#6 to win
Exacta 6/3-4-5
Exacta 3-4/6
Trifecta 3-4-6/1-3-4-6/5
Recent Best Bet Winners
July 30 - Dynamic One/Miles D Exacta ($69.80)
July 31 - DR. SCHIVEL ($6.80)
Aug. 2 - Cavalier Cupid/Rambert Exacta ($7.00), Trifecta ($22.60)
Aug. 4 - Pearl Tiara/Diamond Solitaire Exacta ($11.60)