Saturday's Best Bet: Reinvestment Risk worth the risk
Saturday’s 10th race from Churchill Downs is the Grade 1 Churchill Downs Stakes for four-year-olds and up traveling seven furlongs on the main track (Post Time 4:31 p.m. EDT).
Click here for Churchill Downs Entries, Results
No. 5 REINVESTMENT RISK (7-2) is interesting for Chad Brown. He was clearly second best to Jackie’s Warrior twice in graded one turn races as a juvenile in 2020, and he took a bunch of win money in those races and was even money in the Hopeful (G1). He only raced once last year and was a distant 3rd. He returned with a razor sharp sprint win at Gulfstream Feb. 26, and dueled from the rail and was a clear 2nd behind Speaker’s Corner in the Carter (G1) April 9. His numbers jumped up in his first two starts as a four-year-old and he flees the rail and figures to stalk the pace.
No. 8 Cezanne (7-2) is now conditioned by Todd Pletcher and he was an okay performer for Bob Baffert. He won the Kona Gold (G3) last year and the San Carlos (G2) at seven panels March 5. He stretched out, stalked, led, and missed by a neck in the Oaklawn Mile (G3) April 2. Flavien Prat strings along and he projects an outside stalking trip.
No. 3 Jackie’s Warrior (5-2) is deadly around one turn and could easily go all the way again. The multiple graded winner owns strong pace and speed ratings and should make his presence felt throughout. He is 2-for-2 at Churchill and 2-for-3 with a runner-up finish at this distance. He also likes a wet track and looks like the main speed.
No. 6 Prevalence (6-1) is very good now for Brendan Walsh. He pressed and cruised at one mile on a fast track at Gulfstream March 5, and clicked right back from an outer post in the slop in the Commonweath (G3) at this distance April 9. He drew well and should sit a decent tactical trip, and he sports a pair of seven panel wins. His numbers advanced nicely in his last pair.
No. 1 Aloha West (7-2) upset the Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) at 11-1 when last seen in the fall. I had my doubts that he could get up at six furlongs last time but he proved me wrong (Dr Schivel was my top choice). He struck twice at this trip and once at Churchill, but it is not easy to win an extended sprint off the bench.
Get my expert Ky Derby full card picks for May 7 (available now).
Wagers:
No. 5 to win
Trifecta Box 3-5-8
Trifecta 3-5-8/3-5-6-8/1
Recent best-bet winners
May 5 - Tom's Regret ($6.40), trifecta ($430.80)
May 6 - Olympiad ($3.80), exacta ($12.00)