Saturday's Best Bet: Mercilla can mow down rivals in Virginia Oaks
Saturday's eighth race from Colonial Downs is the $150,000 Virginia Oaks for 3-year-old fillies traveling a mile and an eighth on the inner turf course (Post Time 8:15 p.m. ET).
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#1 MERCILLA (5-1) clearly likes turf. She won her flat mile turf debut in France last fall, and shipped to the U.S. and rallied to win an 8.5 furlong optional claiming turf affair at Pimlico May 23 (strong kick in race without much pace). She stayed in the Christiana at Delaware Park after that race was taken off the turf, and she did not handle the main track at all. She reconnects with winning rider Trevor McCarthy and fired a Fair Hill bullet for this Aug. 12. She should enjoy today’s added ground and could easily run these down for Graham Motion.
#8 Solar Kitten (8-1) should really like today’s added ground. Her late pace ratings are solid and she can move up in her second start after a layoff.
#4 Ionic (6-1) is a nose away from a perfect 3-for-3 turf route record for Arnaud Delacour. I like her early-pressing versatility.
#5 Tasting the Stars (5-2) is 3-for-3 for Mike Stidham, but I do not think today’s extra distance does her any favors. Undefeated horses are frequently overbet, and I also think she might be better on dirt.
#6 Gardenista (9-2) always finishes in the top three on turf for Arnaud Delacour.
Wagers:
#1 to win
Exacta Box 1-8
Trifecta Key 1/4-5-6-8
Aug 7 - Mr. Buff/Dynamax Prime Exacta ($8.30)
Aug 14 - EQUAL MEASURE ($9.40)
Aug 16 - SIBERIAN IRIS ($16.20)
Aug 17 - Dunbar Road/Point of Honor Exacta ($7.90)
Aug 18 - PRINCE EARL ($21.60), Trifecta ($272.10)
Aug 19 - Hotshot Anna/Spring in the Wind Exacta ($12.40)
Aug 23 - City Man/Cleon Jones Exacta ($17.10)
Aug 25 - Front Run the Fed/Bourbon War Exacta ($10.30)
Aug 26 - READY DANCER ($5.00), Exacta ($11.00)
Aug 29 - Crystalle/Sweet Melania/English Breeze Trifecta ($12.15)