Saturday's Best Bet: Colonel Liam has tactical edge in Saratoga Derby

Photo: Eclipse Sportswire

Saturday’s 8th race from Saratoga is the $500,000 Saratoga Derby Invitational for 3-year-olds traveling a mile and three sixteenths on the turf course (Post Time - 5:07 p.m. ET).

Click here for Saratoga Entries, Results

#6 COLONEL LIAM (7-2) switched to turf and was strong in a local entry level victory July 22. The promising $1.2 million son of Liam’s Map figures to get the jump on the late runners.

#4 Domestic Spending (6-1) captured his first two starts this year for Chad Brown, and he stepped up and rallied to finish a solid 3rd in the Hall of Fame (G2) July 18. I like his late pace ratings and the lightly raced gelding still has upside.

#2 Decorated Invader (7-5) was solid in all three turf route stakes wins this year under Rosario. He can stalk or close and likes this turf course, and fired a local turf bullet for this Aug. 8. Other runners with similar speed figures will offer more value.

#7 Field Pass (6-1) is 4-for-5 with a show finish in his five stakes routes this year. He ran well in both of his local turf routes in 2019 and must be considered a trifecta threat.

#1 Bama Breeze (15-1) was 2nd by a length in the Audubon June 20 (Field Pass 1st), and was 6th of 10 (beaten 1.25 lengths) from the outside post in the Transylvania (G3) July 12. He should save all the ground before launching his rally.

#5 Gufo (9-2) rallied for 3rd in his turf route bow, and has rattled off all four turf routes since, including back-to-back stakes victories. He captured his two longest races at a mile and an eighth, and earned an improved late pace rating in the Kent (G3) July 4.

#8 Get Smokin (15-1) is 1-for-8 on turf with five minor awards. He opened up a big early lead and just held 2nd in the Hall of Fame (G2). The added distance of this race does him no favors, but he will probably show the way for quite some time.

#3 No Word (15-1) is a decent turf performer for Todd Pletcher, but I am not sure about this distance and class level. He won his lone local turf route last summer but his late pace ratings are light.

Wagers:

#6 to win

Exacta 4-6/2-4-6

Trifecta Key 6/1-2-4-7

Trifecta 1-2-4-7/6/1-2-4-7 

August 2020 Best Bet Winners

Aug 3 - Peaceful Feeling/Be Nimble Exacta ($43.40), Trifecta ($59.65)
Aug 6 - Thissmytime/Bimini/Time to Two Step Trifecta ($25.85)
Aug 7 - Jackie's Warrior/Therideofalifetime Exacta ($28.80)
Aug 8 - BODHICITTA ($11.20), Quinella ($34.80)
Aug 9 - SPINOFF ($8.40), Exacta ($16.60)
Aug 10 - Guildsman/So Street/Alfie Solomons Trifecta ($104.30)

Playing the horses can be a rewarding but tough game. Exacta, trifectas, superfectas, Pick 4s, Pick 5s -- there are so many wagers to play, it can get overly confusing. How do you know how much to play or which wagers to try? Unfortunately, part of the learning process can include losing money. But we would like to help you shortcut that process by learning some of the most common mistakes that horseplayers make on a daily basis. Take a look at Horse Racing Nation’s newest eBook -- “Top 10 Mistakes Horseplayers Make” -- and see if it helps you avoid some common mistakes and win more playing the races!

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