Why Creator Will Win Kentucky Derby 2016

This year’s Kentucky Derby season was a bizarre one for me. For the first time I struggled to find a definitive favorite at the start of the year, and I didn’t even pick a Derby horse or compose a list until March. But a late developing gray son of Tapit with a killer closing kick caught my eye in the Rebel and landed on my top five list.

I was incredibly confident in Creator entering the Arkansas Derby and singled him to win. (I’m still kicking myself over not writing the live longshot blog I was considering doing.) The exhilarating performance Creator delivered was enough to boost him to the top of my Derby list.

Here is WHY I believe Creator will win the 142nd running of the Kentucky Derby:

Creator passes the pedigree test with flying colors. A horse’s pedigree is always one of the first things people often look into when selecting a Derby horse, and Creator checks the box here with ease. Arguably the most well bred horse in the field, Creator is absolutely packing stamina on his female side. His dam, Morena, was a three time seasonal champion in her native Peru and is a Grade 2 winner at 12 furlongs. Morena’s stamina is likely in thanks to her grandsire, who happens to be 1981 Belmont Stakes champion, Summing.

Creator is by none other than the flashy Tapit, and although once believed to be a sire with an inability to pass on the stamina necessary to classic winning success, doubters were soon silenced when Tonalist took home the longest classic of them all in 2014. Tonalist remains Tapit’s lone classic winning son, but it is worth noting that Tonalist, similar to Creator, was sporting a powerful and stamina influenced female side. Perhaps the key to classic success in Tapit’s offspring may come from strong bottom sides of the pedigree?

Creator is improving right when he needs to be. I’ve seen many use the fact that he took six starts to break his maiden as a negative, but I really don’t see the problem with that. Instead, I see a horse who’s improving at the right time. When Creator broke his maiden in February he did so in dominating fashion, swooping from last to first to win going away by 7 lengths. He followed that up with a strong third in the Rebel before upsetting the Arkansas Derby.  Not to mention, he’s looked nothing short of impressive training at Churchill in the mornings.

With his deep closing running style, post position 3 shouldn’t be much of a worry. While the Kentucky Derby is expected to lack the early pace of the Arkansas Derby, the pace may still be decent in the Run for the Roses. With expected early pace setter Danzing Candy drawn all the way on the far outside, the San Felipe winner will really have to gun from the gate to beat all the speed on his inside to the early lead. Danzing Candy could have company from the start from Outwork and Nyquist, and those will likely be closely tracked by Gun Runner and Destin. With Danzing Candy needing a sharp start and hustle out of the gate to assume the lead, the pace may be a bit quicker than originally expected and set up nicely for deep closers such as Creator, Suddenbreakingnews, and Exaggerator. Ultimately, between his rapid improvement and hopefully getting first run around the turn, my fingers are crossed that Creator will have dead aim on a tiring Nyquist and will be able to fend off the other deep closers in the final furlong.

With my favoritism aside, sporting a pedigree destined to run all day, rapidly improving form, being quite the looker in the mornings, and packing a lethal closing kick, I’m hoping Creator has what it takes to pull off a double digit odds upset in the Derby.

My final tickets will include a straight win bet in addition to a trifecta with Creator keyed on top of Suddenbreakingnews, Mo Tom, Gun Runner, Exaggerator, Nyquist, Mohaymen, and Mor Spirit underneath.

My Facebook status the Thursday before the AR Derby read, “Creator will win the Arkansas Derby,” so why not stick with the confidence?

Creator will win the 142nd Kentucky Derby.