Preakness Stakes 2017: Is Always Dreaming a Lock?

In what many considered a very wide open Kentucky Derby, the favorite still managed to prevail. Through blistering fractions and a sloppy track, Always Dreaming glided home under a perfect ride by Johnny Velazquez to take the Run for the Roses.

Many are already crowning the son of Bodemeister the next Triple Crown winner. And why not, with a perfect season and two back to back impressive Grade 1 victories? Others are saying the Preakness is set to be his easiest test of the three classics. So, is Always Dreaming a lock?

I’m not so quick to say yes.

While I wasn’t aboard the Always Dreaming train in the Kentucky Derby, I can admit that the best horse won. Seeming to be headed by Irish War Cry at the top of the stretch, Always Dreaming rebroke off the final turn in exhilarating fashion to leave all of his foes, including a flying Lookin At Lee, sputtering behind his muddy wake.

But as impressive as Always Dreaming’s victory was, it’s hard for many, including myself, to give him complete accolades when many of his toughest competitors encountered a world of trouble in Louisville.

Both Classic Empire and Gunnevera are horses who I believe could have run better in the Derby with better trips. Classic Empire received arguably the most nightmarish trip of the entire Derby field. Between breaking outward and getting jostled out of the gate, losing position and ending up much farther back then should be, and then still getting bumped around and forced wide down the backstretch and around the final turn, Classic Empire had every reason to spit the bit. The fact that he kept chugging until the end to finish fourth speaks volumes of his ability.

Gunnevera, on the other hand, ended up one of the widest of all around the final turn and found himself in possibly the most unfavorable path for the stretch run. Despite, the little chestnut continued running every step of the way and continued passing horses until the wire to finish seventh.

The Preakness has ended up with a pace scenario that looks very favorable to Always Dreaming on paper. With very little speed, the Derby winner should be able to sit just off the lead as he did in Kentucky before kicking clear at the top of the stretch yet again. But the horse who will likely be setting the pace, Conquest Mo Money, isn’t exactly the slowest horse, and he definitely isn’t a horse to get caught into a speed duel with.

Conquest Mo Money has shown considerable speed in all five of his previous races, and proved just how good he can be away from his home base when just losing the Arkansas Derby to Classic Empire. His connections decision to skip the Derby and await the Preakness may have been a blessing in disguise, and the son of Uncle Mo looks ready to roll from the outside post in Baltimore. It’s very likely that Conquest Mo Money will be hard pressed from post 10 to take the lead before the first turn, and with Always Dreaming right at his flank, I can’t imagine a scenario where these two horses go as slow as everyone is expecting. Conquest Mo Money putting up his typical fractions wouldn’t be a shock, and if Always Dreaming decides to get caught up in a fast pace, the horses sitting right behind them, Classic Empire being one of them, should be primed for a dream trip.

Classic Empire will likely be among the first flight of horses behind the speed and should be able to pounce around the turn when need be. His trip today should hopefully be worlds better than the disaster in Kentucky, and I have full faith in the juvenile champion to get his revenge today.

Aside from the two favorites, Gunnevera is the only horse I can see posting any sort of upset. With a dreamy jockey change to Mike Smith, if the speed up front is a bit faster than expected, Gunnevera has the closing kick to sweep past the leaders around the far turn, just as he did in the Fountain of Youth. It may be worth mentioning that the pace he closed into during the Fountain of Youth wasn’t exactly blistering, at Gulfstream nonetheless, and I certainly don’t think that the son of Dialed In has lost a step.

While many believe Always Dreaming is a lock, I’m willing to try to beat the favorite again. Now with both the Arkansas and Kentucky Derbies under his belt, I believe Classic Empire is primed to run the race of his life and get his redemption over the Derby winner. I’ll be playing the juvenile champ on top of my tickets along with Always Dreaming and Gunnevera, with Hence and Conquest Mo Money underneath. Good luck and happy Preakness!