Preakness 136 Preview - "Pace makes the race"
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Now that The Derby has come and gone, it’s time to turn our attention to the often overlooked “middle child” of the Triple Crown series. And no doubt you have already heard much talk about how speed is even more valuable at Pimlico Race Course with the tight turns and shorter distance. Many of these talking heads projected a much faster than average pace in the Derby, such as Randy Moss and Gary Stevens in pre-race comments. We all saw how that played out on a fast Churchill Downs track! But consider the following performances of such highly regarded colts that showed good early speed in Baltimore only to lead to subpar results.
2010 – Super Saver went off as the slight favorite over Lookin At Lucky and stalked a moderate pace set by newcomer First Dude, yet was totally empty in the stretch to finish a disappointing 8th place. Keep in mind that although his Derby win likely was taxing, he had only raced twice going into the Derby and was still considered a “fresh” horse for the Preakness. Of course, Lucky won the race with a better trip while sitting around mid-pack through the first six furlongs. First Dude ran a huge race to get the place off the shelf since April 10th considering he maintained the lead for much of the race.
2009 – Super woman, Rachel Alexandra, made every call a winning one by setting sensible fractions and being clearly superior to this bunch. But Mine That Bird probably even gave Calvin a scare in deep stretch as he rallied furiously from 13th and last to miss by a length at the wire. Interesting to note that Fresian Fire and Pioneerof the Nile were well backed at the windows and both raced forwardly (3rd and 4th after a half), yet both faded badly and only beat two other horses.
2008 – After cruising in the Derby, Big Brown cruised yet again on the PEDs while sitting third until taking the lead on the turn. But Gayego, the second choice at post-time, showed good speed before tiring badly to finish 11th. On the contrary, the place and show horses, Macho Again and Icabad Crane, came from 8th – 9th after 6 furlongs to complete the trifecta.
2007 – Curlin claimed the Woodlawn Vase in ’07 in a top three repeat of the Kentucky Derby. But many handicappers believed the shorter distance would benefit Hard Spun, who led nearly every step of the Derby while finishing a game second. Yet, on this day he finished four lengths behind Curlin and Street Sense, who rallied from the 6th and 7th positions after the six furlong marker.
2006 – Barbaro’s fatal race likely distorted what would have happened with the pace, but considering Bernardini’s dominant five length score it’s hard to imagine him not winning while staying about 4 lengths off the lead in 4th position until turning for home. The speedy Brother Derek, who was coming off a solid 4th place finish in Kentucky, ran poorly as the second betting choice while stalking the pace in 2nd early, only to finish 15 lengths behind the winner.
Going back to 2000 includes more well backed front-runner types that finished worse in the 1 3/16 mile Preakness than in the 1 ¼ mile Derby, including Lion Heart ’04, Peace Rules ’03 and Congaree ’01. Whereas, closers Afleet Alex ’05 and Point Given ’01 authoritatively redeemed their Derby flops by staying even further off the early pace at Baltimore. Several other Preakness winners had comparable pace trips between the Derby and Preakness, such as speedster War Emblem ’02 and stalkers Funny Cide ’03 and Smarty Jones ’04.
So if I’ve noticed any track variant over the past decade, it’s that closers actually have a better chance at Pimlico compared to trying to maneuver around a full 20 horse field in the Derby. But as always, “pace makes the race” and will ultimately dictate the outcome. One thing is for sure -- if we see another 48 and change half mile time I’m hoping my picks are all forwardly placed at that point. And you can bet Zito and LaPenta will be kissing that Magna $5.5 million bonus goodbye!
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